Fishing by percentages?

A number of 'old' big roach threads have been resurrected lately to promote this:'I am involved with a? website called surefirefishing.com.?Big roach are featured on the?information page and this might interest you.'

As an angler who works five days a week, and finds Saturdays the only practical day for my winter fishing, I have to rely on knowledge, experience, Metcheck, and a sneaky look at the river on Friday evening to attempt to gauge my best prospects for the weekend.

That means back to the basics of locating the fish which must be 90% of angling followed by ensuring I have the right bait and gear for whatever takes my fancy that day.
On the bank it's then a case of understanding how to feed and fish the chosen swim, and taking it from there according to what happens.

These are Walker's angling principles. Or the 4 'F's - Find em, Feed em, Fish em, Foto em.??
What I dare not do is attempt to analyse too deeply what my chances are; there are too many variables, even on the same river and same day.
My local river has several water temperatures, several water colours, even several levels, all on the same day. The effect of the wind can be mitigated or exaggerated by local geography, and to add to the fun, there are the seasonal barely understood migrations of the fish, especially at the back end of the season.
Sometimes I blank, sometimes I do OK, and once in a while have a red-letter day, but if I stopped enjoying it I'd stop going.

So telling me I should fish for roach because roach score 32% as opposed to chub 21% on a given day seems nonsense? Hell, without unpredictability angling soon loses its charm and sense of mystery.

What does anyone else think?

[Admin Edited for clarity]

I'd agree with that!

I also keep an eye on the rivers levels, metcheck etc and then try and work out from there what the best approach might be regarding bait, tackle, species to fish for. To me this is part of the fun of fishing. I also take enjoyment from trying to adapt to the conditions whilst I am on the bank. I realise that a true reflection of the weather comes from actually being there on the day; but keeping an eye on the weather leading up to the weekend can give a slight advantage!

Totally agree with Mark (but it's handy to have a local who occasionally drops a few hints)./forum/smilies/wink_smiley.gif

That's what happened late last year when Mark shared some of his hard earned information.

More recently I've had success with Chub and that was all the more satisfyingbecause they came after five 140 mile round trips over a space of a couple weeks. Finally had the river just right and found them willing to feed well (also help from another local on the day!).

The previous trips had me staring at raging chocolate torrents, gin clear low water and anything and everything in between. Each time I supposedly travelled light but had various permutations of gear and baitbecause I was 100% sure I wouldn't really know till I got there!

Mark, came across this by accident so a bit late to respond however, I would like to respond to some of the points you make.

(1) The coarse fishing reckoner is designed to give advice as to which species might be active..not tell somebody when and what they should fish for, ultimately that is the choice of any angler. You have a lot of angling experience from which you can make a good judgement as to what you fish for and where you fish but, not everybody has this.

(2) I agree it is not a perfect solution as conditions can change and your critism is valid, but mostly and most of the time if you use the reckoner the data will be valid as long as you use the most up to date information you can .

(3) Far from making fishing less enjoyable I have found this makes fishing far more interesting; although I agree too much analasis would not be a good thing a healthy interest in conditions and how they affect your catches can not be a bad thing.

(4) I agree 32% roach and 21% chub does not mean much but does 95% roach and 21% chub mean something? Would you rather be fishing for chub on that day?!

(5) Have you tried using the reckoner?

(6) The crux really is, does it work? I have found that it works very well..OK. not 100% but 80% of the time I have found at least one of the species predicted to be active and it is usually more than this.

The main point for me is that I catch a lot more fish with its help.

....Yours MarkG

[Admin Edit for clarity]

Further

(7) If a mate, without much fishing experience, rang you and asked your advice as to which species he should fish for given the conditions of the day you would draw on your considerable experienceand give him some advice. At the very least you would not consider this nonsence. Yet the Coarse Fishing Reckoner is no different to this scenario. It is like having a mate on your computer. Spend 10 mins before going fishing, enter the conditions you expect to encounter and it will advise you as to which species should be active.

(8) So, whats wrong with that?

(9) I have trouble remembering what I caught 3-4 sessions ago let alone what the conditions were yet, my programme "remembers" exactly what I caught and exactly what the conditions were going back 8 years. Can you! That is why its "advice" is so good.

(10) The program uses ranges of air and water temperatures, barometric readings, wind speed for example 50-55 degrees. So, if conditions alter during your sessions they more often than not stay within the ranges you set prior to fishing and the prediction does not change. Obviously month, and moon phase are set andIi have found water colour to stay constant.

Wind direction can be a problem but I have not set this as a high scoring condition within the program so some variation does not affect the result to much. Usually the change in conditions only affects the percentage but not the order they are given and the top two species stay the same. Of course sometimes the conditions can change considerably but I have found that in practice this happens rarely.

(11) I charge for the reckoner, at present £2 (for the month) as a lot of work, time and money has been used to formulate this "new" approach and in relation to the cost of a pint of beer, a packet of boilies etc I do not consider this a lot but, some people do object to this.

(12) I have used this forum in the past so that fishing magic members can have a look at this new concept and see for themselves whether it is for them. Fishing forums should be there so that new concepts/ideas get an airing. The website surefirefishing.com does not compete in any way with Fishing Magic. It is not a member/forum based website and it only sells the Reckoner and some information sheets.

I will not pursue this any further but, I hope these points will make you give more consideration to this and help you take a more balanced view, it is easy to dismiss something as nonsense without knowing much about it and I may be wrong but I feel this may be the case. Let me know about any other reservations you have (honest) or otherwise. Your fellow angler Markg

I am still young(ish)but fortunate enough to be retired.Consequently I have the opportunity to pick most of my days on which to fish which is very useful in winter when temperature variation usually means catching or blanking.

However,this does not mean that I will only go when the weather is fine,settled and fining down after rain etc etc.No,I go when I feel I want to go-just to be out-testing myself and(as other have said above)trying to beat the situation I have in front of me- but most of all enjoying it.Obviously,I do everything to improve my chances but it will never be'fish when conditions are perfect' because they rarely are!

Yes,I do try to aim for big roach when everything looks and feels right BUT I am always very happy if a chub happens to fancy my maggots.Mostly,I follow the Walker doctrine(if thats what its called)-using big baits on big hooks that may be too big but I like to think that when the float dips it is a big roach,Unfortunately,the big bait has usually been takenby a chub and just occasionally a decent one!

If I had to rely(or even consider)a'Reckoner'it would seem that all the years Ive spent trying to understand the elements would be for nothing.Its because a'dead-cert'has no place in angling that I go fishing-I dontever want to use yet another device to improve my chances.I want to look at the fish laying in the net,smile and think"Ive caught you because I applied every bit of skillI vould muster to fool you into taking my offering".

Take that away and fishing would mean nothing........................

I do not dismiss anything and perhaps this gismo will suit some but its not for me.That said I will read call I can about it and see how I feel..............

Hi Markg, I've only had a quick look but it seems v interesting but it seems its going to have a problem with verification. If it says roach and I go out and catch you will get kudos, if it says roach and I blank because I am a crap angler (hypothetically of course) then you get brick bats. Further in the same scenario, if I catch a few roach, how do I know I would not have caught more chub? Perhaps I'm being a bit too pedantic as I appreciate it is a probabilities game.

Whilst I keep some records of weather etc; like Tee-Cee, it will not influence me either, on whether to go out to fish, or not.

As has been said so many times, you'll never catch sitting on the settee!

Thanks for your feedback, I was beginning to feel unloved. I have decided to go fishing over the weekend despite the bad weather and I will go; I will not be put off. I have run the conditions for saturday and sunday through the reckoner and big/roach figure in the top two species for both days. I will probably fish a small stream I know that holds some big/roach but they do not show often. I may change my mind and ifI do not feel like fishing this stream I will try somewhere else. I may even go sea fishing as there has been some big bass showing of the beaches. The point I am making is that this is not some monster on your computer that has to be obeyed and you will catch some terrible illness if you don't. However , I do understand that this will just not be liked by some people and thats fair enough. The point about verification is a good one but,if given a fair trial over a period of time it will become evident that it works and is not coincidence. I found this out quite quickly when I started field testing it.

Thanks again for your feedback I do appreciate it and if you have anymore views( even the bad ones)let me know. MarkG

If youwould like to have a look at Septembers Coarse Fishing Reckoner just to take a look or give it a try. Post your request and email address on this site before Friday 12th September. I will send it to you as an attached file on the email. It is easy to download.

For fishing magic members only.

FREE OF CHARGE, NO CATCHES,NO HASSLEAND NO OBLIGATIONS

It comes on a microsoft office 2000spreadsheet and takes 2.3mb of space.

Again many thanks for you feedback, keep it coming....MarkG

As a died in the wool river fishing lover I think that I've learn enough in my 72 years to rely on my instincts as to where and when to go fishing. If I had to rely on info from whatever source before venturing out on the river then I think I would pack it all in and take up knitting. Certainly little tips from regular anglers on the stretchyou propose fishingshouldn't go unheeded but at the end of the day if you can't suss it out for yourself you have been doing something wrong or you are a slow learner.

Instinct can’t tell me if it’s been raining in the next county or what the river levels are when I live 40 miles away. If I can get a river level or I pay attention to the weather forecast or go on the internet then at least I can decide where to fish and which stretches give me the best options. If I get the urge to go fishing regardless of the weather conditions then the last thing I want is a long walk down to the river to find it unfishable. Ringing a mate up who’s just been on the river to find out how it’s fishing is not using your instinct it’s no different than ringing the EA’s Rivercall, all be it much more reliable. For winter Chubbing on clear nights if I know what time the moonrise or moonset is I can choose a swim that gives me more dark hours in my session.

Mark have you every gone back and plotted results as compared to the reckoner's predictions..?

A lot of people use this site, I'm sure a few would happily test drive them.

One or two things struck me:

(10) The program uses ranges of air and water temperatures, barometric readings, wind speed for example 50-55 degrees. So, if conditions alter during your sessions they more often than not stay within the ranges you set prior to fishing and the prediction does not change. Obviously month, and moon phase are set andIi have found water colour to stay constant.


Water colour (clarity) can change quite rapidly - by the hour if you fish spate or tidal rivers, or drains which land drains are pumped into. Ditto some gravel pits which are still being worked.

Wind direction can be a problem but I have not set this as a high scoring condition within the program so some variation does not affect the result to much. Usually the change in conditions only affects the percentage but not the order they are given and the top two species stay the same. Of course sometimes the conditions can change considerably but I have found that in practice this happens rarely.

Wind direction can make or break your fishing on some of the waters I fish. This can be down to the logistics of fishing them - too windy to get where you wanted on the boat/cast to the right spot/wind perfect for drifting.

It can also be down to the way you can get very different weather systems depending on wind direction.

I love reading about all this stuff but for every rule you can find an exception in fishing.

The day it was all wrong but you went anyway because it was your only day off that week and slaughtered them.

Or the day you looked forward to thinking it was all going to come right because it looked perfect when you got there and it didn't.

There was a school of thought in pike fishing about moon phases a few years back some still subscribe to.

It began as good fishing around full/new moon, then loads of other variables were added - lunar drag times etc.

I'm sure results weren't conclusive when you compared catches to predictions.

You could say the same about air pressure and the old adage about deads being more productive in low pressure vs lures and undeads better in high pressure.

It's all fascinating stuff but I'd love to know how your program crunches the data.

Firstly, Graham must catch so many fish he doesnt need any help. Secondly , hello John, you and me had a fair old debate about the moon phase some time ago and it was very interesting , nice to hear from you again, not sure what point you are making here though.

Chri, you have asked me a quite a lot and I will try to answer your questions.With regard to water colour you are right; it can change rapidly sometimes. I define 4 stages, clear, some colour, fairly coloured and very coloured. I started by using a 1-10 system of clarity but I found these broad categories good enough and more consistent and easy to understand. Also I have found that if I make an estimation of the water I am going to fish by using weather , recent rainfall etc as a guide and importantly my knowledge of the water I intend fishing, I am mostly right (not always, fair enough). Again I find that during a session the water colour does not change very often, or at least dramatically so. I do fish a couple of spate rivers were this does happen but, even here not that often. I am not claiming this approach to angling is perfect and there are problems but, if you make a good job of entering the 9 conditions I use prior to fishing and those entries stay fairly well within the ranges you set then the prediction holds good. I am at an advantage of using this for three years and it is only very occassionaly that I have got home and reentered the conditions and found the prediction to be different. More often than not the the percentages may have changed a bit for each species but not the order they are given. As long as the top two remain the top two I am happy with that.

Further... this is the case; the amount times it changes are not often enough to make this approach unworkable.

Much of what I have said applies to wind direction; I don't think whether this applies to boat launching is relevant here. I worked on a mathematical formula to calculate just how important each condition was to fish activity. It was based on the amount of variation shown in the results when looking at each condition individually. So was Air temperature more important than Barometric pressure for example. Was water colour more important than wind speed and so on. I use the results of this part of my research in the programme when it crunches the numbers. The wind direction was not very high on the list, I cannot remember where off hand without opening my programs but it was not high. What I am saying is that if the wind changes direction but, as long as the major conditions don't alter dramatically it will not change the results of the program. I hope this is clear..if not let me know I will have another stab at it.

I have often said that this program is not to be used to decide whether you go fishing or not and I never use it that way. I always decide that I want to go firstly. It is only then that I use my program to pinpoint the two species that are most likely to be feeding and then use that good information to help me decide venue, swim tactics etc. The percentages are only a system of scoring that most people understand and that is why I use it but , what is on top of the table is more important than the actual score.

Like Chris I’m fascinated by what makes playing the percentages work. At the moment my head is buzzing with figures re imputing the whole of the Chub Study Groups catch returns from 1972 to 2008 some 13,000 plus chub caught all over 4lb. The easy bit after imputing the data is just doing the listings i.e. how many chub caught in a given year, who caught the biggest chub, who caught the most and the most popular bait etc. Analyzing the data as to what is the best bait, best time and best rive/weather conditions is another matter entirely.Re Marks thread re playing the percentages I believe that is exactly what the successful anger does, be it specimen or match. You can call it water craft, being well read, having contacts to river levels/local weather conditions etc. The good angler plays the percentages based around the information available to him.How good “surefirefishing.com” is I’ve no idea but like Chris I’d be very interested in the logic behind the program? The hard bit as I see it would be to make the predictions as local as possible. You need to download electronically data from the Met Office and the EA in real time then crunch the numbers for local regions. Possible but difficult and possible expensive, now I know the EA and the Met are publicly funded but the useful data generally cost. With Rivercall costing 70p per minute I can’t see them making this data available on line for nothing.

Further.. I do not know about lunar drag times and If I got that far in to it I would top myself.

Yes, I have always claimed that I catch one of the top two species 80% of the time and I do check this. When I first started collecting data I used to score the days fishing 1-10 more as an after thought really . I continued this when I started using the reckoner and my scores improved dramatically...Honest. I soon realised that the difference was that I was more often fishing in the right place at the right time than before. And for the right species.

How do I crunch the numbers..Trade secret old son but, the program does look at say month, water colour and moon phase together. Or water temperature, barometric pressure and water colour say. It uses the 9 conditions of month, wind direction, wind speed, weather etc. That gives 84 different combinations of three conditions. So when you enter the 9 conditions the program puts them into these trios and looks at all of them by comparing them with the database. You know doing all of this was a lot harder than I anticipated, there many what ifs and can this be right and I tried quite a few variations on this. I still maintain that despite all of this the results are what matter and Yes it is not perfect and some days it will be wrong for various reasons but, I think as a new approach to catching fish and an interesting one that overall works it is bloody good but , I am biased and why not.

Markg, interesting, I’ve just looked at your site and I may download one of your sheets, at £2 how can anyone complain, and test it along side my own records for Chub on the Ribble. I would have thought that the ranking for wind would be quite different for still waters than rivers, however, as I’ve not kept any data on this then I’m only surmising. One parameter I have measured is moon phases. When I did it for my own Ribble Chub records and the FishingMagic Ribble Venue records it didn’t make much difference. However, I also did it for the Chub Study Group and there was a difference in Chub catches per moon phase. This needs further investigation. I make an effort not to fish for Chub on the Ribble when the skis are clear with a bright moon making this a bit of a self full filling prophesy for me. Re water temperature, I’ve caught Chub in all water temps but I sure because all fish are cold blooded there must be an optimum temp at which fish like to feed but this may also be associated with the beetles, bugs and worms they feed on. Unfortunately Rivercall don’t give water temperatures on a day to day basis. Now this would be useful, it would be nice to know weather the temp is falling or rising.

John ..to enter up to date info into the coarse fishing reckoner for local weather, I use bbc.co.uk/weather..You get 5 days worth of air temperature, wind speed, wind direction, weather, barometric pressure. All you have to do is use your local knowledge and common sense to calculate water colour and water temperature. The month and moon phase are automatically done for you. Takes 10 minutes dead simple..why make things complicated, very user friendly and it is as good as anything else I looked at and mostly accurate. Chub are indeed an all year round fish and in the winter they become the mainstay along with roach and carp. Tench , bream , crucian carp and rudd almost drop of the radar so to speak. Therefore, different species of fish <u>are</u> affected by different conditions and temperatures. I did not treat wind on still waters and rivers any different for this.