Like Lee I think the number being suggested is very optimistic in the near future.
If you look at the Ribble Returns for 2010-11, which is in the top 4 Game rivers in England. The returns for salmon were 1160 and 1460 for sea trout. Suggesting the Yorks rivers in the near future could do the equivalent ST is in my view wildly optimistic.
Sorry Greenie I don’t agree with your analysis of the research you cite and for this reason, the numbers of tagged salmon (standard tags) released are small for each river they are returned too. 30-100. If only two tagged “Foreign fish” turn up in a river, which is not their home river, it’s impossible to extrapolate from that that the numbers of foreigners is low, as you don’t know how many untagged foreigners came into the river with them.
All you can say is, you only know that 2 foreign tagged fish were caught be that by rod and line or in survey nets.
If radio tags are fitted, which is done for movement studies, not population studies. The cost of them is prohibitive and at most 5-15 fish are tagged. To then use the returns of them for population studies would be bad science at best because of the very low sample size.
Not all anglers report they’ve caught a tagged fish of any discription, ergo there’s under reporting.
To your final point that would be the case if no salmon were returning into such a river, But not if salmon were running it.